Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 20.716397 22.491239 24.406222 26.636045 29.173904 31.987689 35.364590
2025-10-12 17.842322 20.256815 23.041313 26.529256 30.838401 36.065837 43.012278
2025-10-19 15.989549 18.788324 22.188963 26.710354 32.701169 40.579337 52.114158
2025-10-26 14.437084 17.415065 21.182849 26.437197 33.815715 44.222043 60.873631
2025-11-02 13.263072 16.345902 20.379285 26.236925 34.892777 47.904365 70.574808
2025-11-09 12.377456 15.538824 19.797377 26.209479 36.137068 51.989995 82.053123
2025-11-16 11.611907 14.807463 19.220713 26.078269 37.147409 55.837465 94.311192
2025-11-23 10.965007 14.175769 18.708941 25.955451 38.110265 59.750180 108.084263
2025-11-30 10.394432 13.601232 18.218154 25.789256 38.944282 63.567527 123.190555
2025-12-07 9.942900 13.160875 17.881601 25.817680 40.098285 68.231021 142.503905
2025-12-14 9.515017 12.722676 17.507129 25.731883 41.013952 72.603395 163.433697
2025-12-21 9.329000 12.629562 17.654502 26.537231 43.730998 81.595523 204.222791
2025-12-28 8.896557 12.144749 17.158867 26.193499 44.187709 85.661265 232.733091
2026-01-04 8.563117 11.794101 16.856459 26.169700 45.314008 91.781826 275.544690
2026-01-11 8.301887 11.540103 16.692990 26.382717 46.987139 99.942183 338.130956
2026-01-18 7.978408 11.168459 16.305203 26.129630 47.584508 105.336753 395.713355
2026-01-25 7.691710 10.840038 15.968021 25.939287 48.297222 111.378504 469.270521
2026-02-01 7.454336 10.578635 15.728043 25.915145 49.403992 119.152529 574.897640
2026-02-08 7.217816 10.306315 15.450739 25.787298 50.237014 126.410261 700.973750
2026-02-15 6.998912 10.052311 15.189629 25.666993 51.073346 134.118461 866.178750
2026-02-22 6.788263 9.802173 14.920186 25.503696 51.774511 141.717770 1076.258516
2026-03-01 6.618130 9.612287 14.748280 25.531765 53.005112 152.188323 1421.518997
2026-03-08 6.442909 9.405871 14.533837 25.447386 53.913728 161.870830 1879.038884